The online version of Science has published a study conducted by a group of scientists at the Georgia Institute of Technology in which they conclude that the major reason for the increase in the intensity of hurricanes around the globe is due to the rising ocean temperatures. The authors even dismissed the possible contributions by other factors; humidity in the lower atmosphere and air-circulation patterns; as insignificant.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA) is not convinced yet and it has questioned the consistency of the data used by the researchers. Nonetheless the Georgia Tech shows convincingly that the number of intense category 4 and category 5 hurricanes has doubled in all regions of the world. The issue of what is causing the rise in surface ocean temperature is not addressed directly but many are convinced that human activity is the most important contributor.
It is also important to note two other recent developments. The water temperature in the Gulf of Mexico was found last week to be higher than normal (Hurricane season starts in 3 months) and all the insurance companies of Berkshire Hathaway will write less weather related policies but charge much higher premiums because they believe that the rise in weather intensity is here to stay.
What is most ironic , at least to this observer, is that the evidence is increasingly suggesting that the destruction of New Orleans was not providential.
Saturday, March 18, 2006
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
US Army and Peak Oil
“The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close,” according to a recently released US Army strategic report. The report posits that a peak in global oil production looks likely to be imminent, with wide reaching implications for the US Army and society in general.
The report, Energy Trends and their Implications for U.S. Army Installations, was conducted by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers late last year. The authors of the report seem to place very little credibility on the more optimistic oil production forecasts of the international energy agencies. They quote Jean Laherrere on why the US Geological Survey (USGS) future oil availability estimates are clearly overly optimistic:
The USGS estimate implies a five-fold increase in discovery rate and reserve addition, for which no evidence is presented. Such an improvement in performance is in fact utterly implausible, given the great technological achievements of the industry over the past twenty years, the worldwide search, and the deliberate effort to find the largest remaining prospects.
The study goes on to warn that “energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports. There is no perfect energy source; all are used at a cost.” This surprisingly "greenish" report is not the kind of a document that is often associated with such an institution such as the US Army. Who said that you cannot teach old dogs new tricks?
The report, Energy Trends and their Implications for U.S. Army Installations, was conducted by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers late last year. The authors of the report seem to place very little credibility on the more optimistic oil production forecasts of the international energy agencies. They quote Jean Laherrere on why the US Geological Survey (USGS) future oil availability estimates are clearly overly optimistic:
The USGS estimate implies a five-fold increase in discovery rate and reserve addition, for which no evidence is presented. Such an improvement in performance is in fact utterly implausible, given the great technological achievements of the industry over the past twenty years, the worldwide search, and the deliberate effort to find the largest remaining prospects.
The study goes on to warn that “energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports. There is no perfect energy source; all are used at a cost.” This surprisingly "greenish" report is not the kind of a document that is often associated with such an institution such as the US Army. Who said that you cannot teach old dogs new tricks?
Monday, March 13, 2006
Cost of Economic Growth
The environmental regulator of China
announced that Beijing and many other Chinese cities have become the most polluted cities in the world. Actually the incidence of lung cancer in Beijing is the highest in the world. He goes on to warn of impending environmental disasters if no action is taken to correct the current problem of airpollution, water pollution and hazardous waste. Of course all of these issues are relatively new to China, especially their intensity,thanks to the tremendous growth in the level of economic activity. Can the Chinese afford their new found wealth?
announced that Beijing and many other Chinese cities have become the most polluted cities in the world. Actually the incidence of lung cancer in Beijing is the highest in the world. He goes on to warn of impending environmental disasters if no action is taken to correct the current problem of airpollution, water pollution and hazardous waste. Of course all of these issues are relatively new to China, especially their intensity,thanks to the tremendous growth in the level of economic activity. Can the Chinese afford their new found wealth?
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