“The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close,” according to a recently released US Army strategic report. The report posits that a peak in global oil production looks likely to be imminent, with wide reaching implications for the US Army and society in general.
The report, Energy Trends and their Implications for U.S. Army Installations, was conducted by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers late last year. The authors of the report seem to place very little credibility on the more optimistic oil production forecasts of the international energy agencies. They quote Jean Laherrere on why the US Geological Survey (USGS) future oil availability estimates are clearly overly optimistic:
The USGS estimate implies a five-fold increase in discovery rate and reserve addition, for which no evidence is presented. Such an improvement in performance is in fact utterly implausible, given the great technological achievements of the industry over the past twenty years, the worldwide search, and the deliberate effort to find the largest remaining prospects.
The study goes on to warn that “energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living and a necessity for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports. There is no perfect energy source; all are used at a cost.” This surprisingly "greenish" report is not the kind of a document that is often associated with such an institution such as the US Army. Who said that you cannot teach old dogs new tricks?
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